Business Analytic: A Probabilistic Decision-Making
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Business Analytic: A Probabilistic Decision-Making
- Immediate Instinct in this Situation
The Monty Hall problem: this is so counterintuitive a problem. I would feel from my instinct that my first choice is the correct one. Emotionally, I think the odds are balanced after one door is revealed to have a goat behind it. According to Johansen (2021), this is just an intuition rather than knowledge of how decisions about probability should be made. But this intuition needs to be corrected. That probability becomes twice as much if the candidate switches doors and one of the doors opens to a goat.
- Action to Take
As much as my gut feeling would want me to stay, my rational analysis of the situation says something else. Realizing that the problem is probabilistic, I greatly opt to change doors with determination. Mathematically, this is a strategic move for me to help maximize winning that sought-after car.
- Rationale for Decision:
Embracing Probabilistic Reason If you’re like most people, it feels completely counterintuitive to choose door No. 2 once one door has disclosed a goat. But that is a choice with a good probability theory behind it. First, my chance that the chosen door has the car is 1/3; the other two doors have the remaining 2/3 chance. If I switch doors, my focus on probability is sharpened from 2/3 over the unopened door to all 2/3, doubling my chance of winning. So this is where I can’t just change doors willy-nilly. I should proceed data-dependent to maximize my chances of a good result. This is a random situation that could only exist on a game show.
References
Johansen, L. M. (2021, November 22). Quantum theory is logically inevitable. ArXiv.org. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2111.05619