Growth of Air Travel
Name
Institution
In this topic we are going to discuss the evolution of passenger air travel from the year 1949 to 1960 which is regarded as post-war era. This had a great boost due to the development of the jet engines before, during and after the war which saw countries like Britain and Germany include jet engine planes into their military planes by the end of world war two.
We are comparing month to month bookings to see whether there is a notable change and also checking the seasonality of it. Thus we have year and month records as our two fields of consideration with the months showing the total bookings by the last day.
In summary;
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
104.0 180.0 265.5 280.3 360.5 622.0
we see that the least number of bookings were one hundred and four which was in November of 1949 and the maximum number of bookings was six hundred and twenty two which was in July of 1960 with a median of two hundred and sixty five point five and an average booking of two hundred and eighty point three per month.
This was after the start of commercial flights by the British comet which first took to the skies in 1949 and entered commercial service in 1952. Since the comet was still in its early development stages, it suffered from unexpected problem which was known as metal fatigue which led crashing of the plans.
This also paved way for other companies like the American Boeing with its Boeing 707 which overtook the Comit it development and was a great success for the company. With the dawn of commercial flights, there came about some popular phrases and medical terms such as jet lag.
With the development of the jet engine, there was a notable increase in flight range which brought reliability to commercial flights as a means of transport. This is indicated by the increase in number of air passengers over the years as shown below.
Annual comparison.
This shows a steady increase in the number of flights annually as the technology came to age and air travel safety issues were addressed. These are matters such as wing technology which reduced the metal fatigue and also the placement of the engines to minimize drag.
This graph indicates there is an exponential growth in a ten year time difference this is between the year 1950 and the year 1960. this was due to an increase in inter state flights and also 1950s being a decade of prosperity more families could afford air travel. This was due to the growth of the middle class.
There was also an increase in consensus between countries which allowed mass migration of people in search of greener pastures. It is also notable that air travel governing bodies such as FAA were formed during this time due to an increased number of crushes. This led to an increase in public trust.
Monthly comparison.
On the box plot we are checking on monthly bookings. In this case the best performing month is July which has the highest number of of bookings followed by august. This are summer months which people set their holidays and vacations. This can also represent the most number of flights. This also indicates the third quarter as the best performing quarter of the year for the airlines in terms of passengers.
The worst months are February and November which are winter months. This can also be due to prier and post- festivities thus people minimizing movement as they plan for the holidays and also grounding and cancellation of flights due to bad weather. This represents the first and the last quarters of the year as the lowest performing quarters in number of passengers.
This information can be used by airlines to plan there business in terms of demand and also come up with better marketing strategies that offer competitive prices to entise passengers during low seasons and also plan flights to minimize loss.
Time series.
In the chats above we are checking how different time series affects the data and whether its normally distributed. We see that there is an upward trend in the number of passengers over the years which is very steady. This can be due to improvement of the planes and also regulations set to govern air travel and also the marketing as a safer and faster mode of transport.
We can also concluded that seasonality affects the number of bookings normally throughout the years this can be due to seasons of the year which affect the planning and also the weather conditions at different times of the year. There are also notable jumps in noise from the year 1950 to 1954 and 1958 to 1960 which signifies less disturbance in the industry.
Forecasting.
The above graph shows a normal growth pattern with a 95% confidence level. This is a steady growth between the years 1961 and 1964. This can vary in between the years due to some unexpected variables such as government regulations and advance in technology and also global economy performance which allow people to travel to different places.
In conclusion, there has been steady growth in air travel since the first plane took to the skies in 1903. The development in wing technology to minimize drag and also the development of engines to increase range. Its was a big leap from cargo planes to passenger planes due to introduction of landing gear.
Development of planes during the war led to improvement of this technology to carry personnel to the battle grounds which can be termed as the genesis of passenger air travel later in the 1950s. This has shortened the travel time by hours if not days to move from one place to another and also improved trade between nations and move of people. In its own way it has made the world a global village.
References
NASM, s. (2020). World War II and the Airlines | America by Air. Retrieved 14 August 2020, from https://airandspace.si.edu/exhibitions/america-by-air/online/heyday/heyday01.cfm
FAA. (2020). Retrieved 14 August 2020, from https://www.faa.gov/about/history/chronolog_history/media/b-chron.pdf
BRADLEY, O. (2020). Retrieved 14 August 2020, from https://www.aia-aerospace.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/PLANES-VOL.8-NO.9.pdf
EXPLORING. (2020). How air travel has changed in the last 100 years | loveexploring.com. Retrieved 14 August 2020, from https://www.loveexploring.com/gallerylist/71818/how-air-travel-has-changed-in-the-last-100-yearsEXPLORING. (2020). How air travel has changed in the last 100 years | loveexploring.com. Retrieved 14 August 2020, from https://www.loveexploring.com/gallerylist/71818/how-air-travel-has-changed-in-the-last-100-years