MELBOURNE METRO RAIL PROJECT
Table of Contents
- Introduction 2
- Risk management in context to the Metro Rail Tunnel Project 4
- Identification of risks 5
- Analysis of risks 11
- Evaluation and treatment of risks 14
- Risk monitoring & control 16
- Conclusion 16
Bibliography 17
- Introduction
The projected Melbourne metro tunnel will provide an end to end service to the busiest Melbourne-Victoria city. The twin nine kilometers tunnels will take a huge time to get completed successfully by the end of 2026 if it commences the execution phase in mid-2017. The proposed area Sunbury to Cranbourne-Pakenham needed to analyze each bit related to the project in an organized way. Several planning and geotechnical investigations related to the region, environment, society and funding sources needed to consider before starting the preliminary phase of the project (MelbourneMetroRail-VictorianStateGovernment, 2016). The five new underground stations including Arden, Parkville, South CBD, North CBD and the Domain will provide continuous service to the people. This $10.9 bn. the project along with ‘Turn up and Go’ train service company will be the largest railway project with high definition engineering and construction work in Australia. The expected timeline of ten years may vary due to the influential factors and the risks associated with it. The more terms of benefits the project will provide in the post-execution period to the people of Melbourne-Victoria, the more risks are concerned in the project. With an expectation to provide transport service to more 39,000 passengers in each two hours would bring pride and economic health for the country (Mitchell, 2016). The proposed project can be viewed in figure 1 below: –
Figure 1
The project metro will be placed in the heart of the city hence the underground stations along with the other two projected stations would directly connect with the existing five stations including Werribee, Craigieburn, Frankston, Sandringham, and Upfield. This project will not only minimize the transportation services in these cities, but also it will explore a metropolitan network to the Melton in future. The sole purpose of the proposal is to strengthen and utilize the inner core capacity of the railway services. The metropolitan network of the existing rail stations and the corridors of Melbourne will be developed in the advanced structure of the underground rail corridor of the metro rail tunnel project. The longer platform structure and high capacity signaling service will regulate the rail metro service more efficiently. The manpower engagement in the planning and construction will provide around 4700 jobs nationwide which is also helpful in the economic development of the nation (Goodier, 2016).
The project report is based on the various risks, probable challenges and obstacles the project would face and the possible solutions. By associating the influential factors, the risk identification, analysis, evaluation, treatment possibilities and monitoring activities will be detailed. This government project is a quite long-term proposal in which several factors including manpower, government interference, private consulting agencies, security agencies, financial institutions and the society will be involved consistently (Rajasekar, 2014). These all factors also influence the risk content of the project which needs to ascertain and control in a best possible way. The projected site plan can be displayed as below: –
Figure 2
- Risk management in context to the Metro Rail Tunnel Project
Project risk is a crucial part of every project activity. Risk can be defined as the variance between the expectation and the reality. As risk is uncertain sometimes, the situations arrive unexpectedly. It is no matter how big or small the project is; the risk association always confirms the negative and positive possibilities of the project. The risk association commences from the planning stage and exists till the post-completion of the project (Kishk & Ukaga, 2008). As the metro rail project will undergo through the government and private agency partnership, the project risks will be less and hence will be controlled more efficiently. The project risk will be spread over different phases of the project including the planning phase, pre-execution phase, execution phase and post-execution phase. Mostly the execution phase of the Melbourne metro rail project would impact with various factors. All the phases will be planned in the planning phase and will renewal the needed actions time to time. The pre-execution phase need actions including tree & vegetation removal, establishment, relocation of the crowd and societal assets, creation of underground utility services including oil, coal, electricity and gas, arrangement of manpower & equipment and making of a well-established work schedule for the rail project for next two years (Foxx, 2015). As the prior work will start from the CBD central, hence the A’Beckett and Franklin Street will be closed for the next five years. This will affect the regular and irregular dependents on both the streets which also need immediate arrangement by choosing the best alternative. The entire commencement will also need to close some more streets within the next ten years or till the completion. The risk factors of the projects needed to identify, analyze, evaluate, monitor and control in an effective way. Before planning for the execution the probable or expected risks should be ascertained, this will help in keeping control over the unexpected or uncertain risks in future (MelbourneHealth, 2016).
- Identification of risks
The identification of risk in a project is a very crucial activity, but with the help of different methods, it is easy to identify the probable risks easily. The sole purpose of risk identification in a project is to identify the factors that may affect the project negatively. In mitigating the adverse effects, it is essential to understand the risks before they affect the project in the future events. Identifying risks is the most important aspects of risk management process (Moug & Coxon, 2013). If the risk identification stage fails, it creates an imbalance in the next steps of risk management of the project. Strong leadership qualities are essential in finding out the risks and control them efficiently. As several stakeholders are associated with the project, so the identification of risk is scoped at finding out the influential factors that may affect the stakeholders. Once the risk identification process commenced successfully, it will be easy to safeguard the stakeholders more effectively. There are two types of risks could be identified in the risk identification process including the existing risks and the uncertain risks. Mostly various methodologies are used by the project managers in identifying the probable risk factors (Junior & Carvalho, 2013).
The modern research methodologies make us capable to identify the risk in many simple ways including brainstorming, flowchart method, professional expertise, on-site investigations, SWOT analysis, discussions and questionnaires & surveys. Among all the methods the SWOT analysis is the most systematic method of ascertaining the risk factor by understanding the strength, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of the project. Among the four aspects of SWOT analysis, two aspects including the strength and opportunities represent the positive response whereas the other two aspects weakness and threats represent the negative possibilities (Dinu, 2012). By briefing the SWOT of the Melbourne metro rail project, it will be easy to understand how much risk the project creates or going to create in future.
Strength: – Strength factors are the supportive elements which minimize the risk possibilities. The project is a fully funded proposal by the Victorian government; hence the financial obstacles won’t appear much in executing the proposal. The strength also includes the well-developed planning that will provide an advanced long platform to the underground stations and high-quality signal service. Being going to establish in the heart of Melbourne, it will also attract many eyes and would facilitate the overall Melbourne and Victorian cities. As Melbourne is the heart of Australia, the rail tunnel project will provide both economics well as social strength for the nation (Currie, 2016).
Opportunity: – The successful implementation of the Melbourne rail project is quite a big opportunity for the nation to represent in the international scenario as an economy with developed and advanced infrastructure. Moreover, the Melbourne-Victoria situational attraction will increase by catching the eye of tourists to take the advantage of the metro tunnel in roaming around the city more comfortable (Akintoye & MacLeod, 2015). The development will also facilitate the government to enhance the public infrastructure as well as the transport services in Victoria (Iacob, 2014). This will also support the Metropolitan Network Development Plan in the country reliably. In a later phase, the rail lines to the Melbourne airport, Don Caster and Row Ville will be developed with inner core capacity will be developed.
Weakness: – The metro rail tunnel project would cost around $10.9 bn. which may increase in the next years as it is not certain that the factors available in the current scenario will remain same in the next ten years. When the existing rail stations have not utilized efficiently, and the Hamstrung has operational inefficiencies, it is not sure that the future rail tunnel will be utilized efficiently. As the rail tunnel will have not any extra rail corridor and it will use the existing ones, hence it may create difficulties for the new trains designed for the rail tunnel. The Southern Cross Station and the Flinders street station are already running with several issues which are impacting the overall rail transport in Melbourne-Victoria corridors. The High Capacity Signaling (HCS) have no guarantee of getting the successful result as it has never been implemented yet. The failure may affect the entire rail system drastically as all the signals interconnected and are controlled by the principal signal system (Black, 2014). The government has planned to make a test signaling at the Sandringham Line and if it shows positive result then it will be installed at the new metro rail tunnel as priority basis. As the new rail tunnel will bring some new trains hence the efficiency of the existing railway stations should be optimized which is in already suffering in various infrastructural and mechanical issues. The South Yarra station has recorded the lowest output which the Melbourne Metro Rail Authority is trying to fix from last two years. All these challenges and difficulties bring uncertain risks at any time. These risks are directly associated with the rail project and hence should be minimized as soon as possible before the metro rail project work begins (Zou, Wang, & Fang, 2008).
Threats: – The Melbourne metro rail project has several threats or risks that may bring uncertain project challenges. The current government has a plan to invest around $11 bn on this giant rail project which is quite big than any of the rail project commenced before. There is no guarantee that the current government would stay in power until the completion of the project. If the current government changes to any other political parties, there could be the possibility that the work will slow down or lack of support for the rail project (Procter & Henderson, 2016). The another threat is the Environment Effects Statement has not yet prepared by the concerned department that will allow starting the primary phase of the construction and the infrastructural work for the project.
The SWOT risk identification technique is quite simple and easy to get a clear idea about the risks factors. Other than the strengths and opportunities the other two aspects may bring several risks. Rather than this technique of risk identification, the other methods including brain storming, flow chart, and on-site surveys could be effective (Rostami, 2016). As the project is based on clear objectives and determined proposals, it is easy to discuss within the group of people associated with the project commencement. A brainstorming session with a purpose to draw the map of projected risks could be helpful in the risk identification process. A well-defined discussion session will allow the participants to convert their ideas in identifying the existing risks and the probable risks. The known and unknown risks could then discuss regarding their actual presence in the project report. The brain storming session is not only needed to commence within a group of people but also within some groups could provide more ideas about risks. The brainstorming session should also be controlled directed by the expert professionals who would motivate the participants to explore their leadership and decision-making qualities (Garrido, Ruotolo, Ribeiro, & Naked, 2011).
The flowchart method of risk identification is also another crucial source to identify the known risks more reliably. In the flowchart method, the activities of the operation are portrayed graphically (Tadayon, Jaafar, & Nasri, 2012). The risks then measured from the rise or fall scenario of the activities after considering other supportive factors. Such example the expectation of the closure of the two streets A’Beckett and Franklin will be closed for next five years or till the project work gets completed at that place. If the transportation facilities get disturbed more than that of expected then either the project work may get stopped, or there could be serious transportation difficulties arise for the on road transport facilities. These all could be mapped through the use of flow chart to brief and display the probable risks systematically (Kansal & Sharma, 2012). The onsite surveys are the primary researchers that need to be conducted after the arrangement of the population and the exact places needed to make a survey. Specific questionnaires to the population and the structural availability at the proposed site are needed to measure for the suitability of the project. As the project will be placed from Sunbury to Cranbourne-Pakenham, hence the entire site including the surrounding space of half a kilometer should be examined. More specifically the on-site evaluation of the CBD is essentially needed as that will be the heart of the Melbourne metro tunnel along with the existing rail network (Forbes & Smith, 2008).
The risk identification methods provide a number of risks including political, construction, finance, market & revenue, operation, legal and environmental risks. These all risks have their specific importance and deepness which is needed to monitor and control individually. All the risks can be discussed as below: –
Political risks: – Political risks are associated with the government stability, government rules and regulations, trade policies and the foreign or international political interference. As Melbourne metro rail project is a developmental proposal of the Australian government, the entire preparation depends on the interest of the current government. As Politics is itself an uncertain thing and anything can happen at any time hence the prospect of the project will be in danger if the stability of the government varies (Sottilotta, 2013). It is also the ability of the government in contacting with the international organizations to guide in making the project successful and to complete within best possible time. The success scenario of the project depends on the efficiency of the government officials, hence the more efficiency the government will have the more successful the project will and vice versa. The political risk can also be increased with the flexibility of the trade policies as most of the construction, and infrastructural equipment will be brought from the outside region of Australia. The projected cost of the metro rail project may vary as per the trade policies time to time. The international relation of the government will also affect the project as a good international relation indicates support from the other countries (GIradi, 2016).
Construction risks: – The entire metro rail tunnel project is mostly based on construction and infrastructural basis; hence any change in the original design will affect the cost of the entire project. The unexpected weather condition while executing the construction works will also delay the progress of the work. The construction uncertainty may arise due to labor strikes, societal opposition due to the failure of the relocation of infrastructural services (Mishra & Mishra, 2016). The successful completion of the project will also depend on the efficiency level of the technical staffs involved in it. The efficiency level may take more than the time expected or underutilization of the available resources. In the first phase of the construction 100 piles will be constructed at the Franklin street and more 76 piles A’Beckett Street shaft site. The more successfully this early level work will commence, the less construction risk will happen in relation to the pilling in the future (Jayasudha & Vidivelli, 2016).
Finance risks: – The entire project is funded by the Victorian government in accordance with the government of Australia. The projected budget cost is around $10.9 bn which is truly associated with the management of the finance at a high risk. As the entire project are interconnected, the metro rail project could be workable if the whole work completed successfully only. Any deviation in the implementation at any phase either bring uncertain financial risk with project failure or delay in work will raise the project cost which is not possible to make government sanction at the later stage. Being a government project, everything related to the financial aspects of the projects should be planned, budgeted and sanction before the execution stage begin (Kamane & Mahadik, 2016). The fluctuation in the exchange rates will also influence the financial aspects of the project time to time.
Market & Revenue risks: – The Melbourne metro rail project is prepared with a hope to not only provide the people high-quality end to end service but also to satisfy the exact passenger demand in rail transport in the Melbourne-Victoria city. In the peak season, the passenger flow may exceed which will create dissatisfaction in the mind of people (Rajkumar, AnandaKumar, & Krishnamoorthy, 2013). As the budget planning has prepared the project after several market investigations, the future passenger flow in the new metro rail transportation service may either affect negatively at the off or peak season. These all uncertainty can’t be controlled, but the impact will stay for a long time as it is not possible to commence another project if the passenger demand exceeds the expectation. The government has targeted to recover the project cost from the train fare within ten years, which may not happen as projected and the uncertainty may take more time to recover.
Operation risks: – Being a giant project, the Melbourne metro rail project needs efficient and effective operation management as the work is spread over a period of 10 years. The operating risks arise when the workforce associated with the project produce inefficient productivity or negligence in the work activities. The operator’s fault may not only restrict the projected growth but also carelessness may block the project operation for an uncertain time. The strikes and industrial disturbances may block the project’s execution activities. The unavailability or personal situations of the workers and managers or operators will also risk the project as the project need adequate and consequent service by the working people. The decision making and leadership qualities of the managers and the operators will also affect the efficiency in the project execution (Ennouri, 20133).
Legal risks: – The Victorian government may exist for the completion of the Melbourne metro rail tunnel project, but the legal rules regulations may affect the estimated growth of the project. The environment safety, societal welfare, labor wages & welfare rules, foreign exchange variation and other legal rules related to the sanctioning the project from the higher authorities of the Australian government may take the uncertain time that may block the project activities. The legal risks also include the legal instruments and legal transactions used to present at the legal boundaries of the nation. The people may arise various questions about the relevancy and success possibilities of the project which is needed to produce answers under the legal boundaries only (Enshassi & Mosa).
Environmental and safety risks: – The entire project site will be affected by several environmental and safety parameters. These parameters will affect at pre-execution, post-execution and during the execution stage of the metro rail project. The construction work will be commenced underground with highly capable or giant infrastructural equipment. These all equipment are needed to be utilized with optimum care and at optimum safety working environment. It is not certain that the working situations would be same and safe always. The failure of safety guidelines will attract accidental situations which may lead to project block or project slow down. The external environment of the metro railway station and rail lines will also affect with the noise pollution. The government has not specific preparation to minimize the noise except the trust on the advanced technology going to be used in the new underground trains. Though, the advanced train will generate less noise than the existing ones but won’t be noiseless. The catastrophic situations including an earthquake or heavy rain may also bring uncertain risks for the metro rail project (Atay & Toz, 2012).
- Analysis of risks
Once the probable risks are identified successfully, the analysis of risks supports in measuring the level of the identified risks. Risk analysis is the technique used to understand the deepness of the risks which will help in evaluating and monitoring of the risks. The metro rail project has several risks associated which are needed to be controlled in the best possible way. Several risk analysis can be used in analyzing the project risks of the Melbourne metro rail project. The risk analysis is mostly divided into two parts including qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques (Murray, Grantham, & Damle, 2011). When the qualitative techniques concentrate on analyzing the situational risks, the quantitative risks are associated with mapping the deepness of the risk situations in numerical and graphical ways. The qualitative risk analysis techniques include brainstorming, Delphi method, decision tree analysis, utility theory and decision theory. The quantitative risk analysis techniques include sensitivity analysis, probability analysis, and Monte Carlo method. Among these methods, the brain storming, Delphi method, utility theory and sensitivity analysis are probably effective. The deepness of the analysis needed to use different methods according to the needed situation (Badri, Gbodossou, & Nadeau, 2012).
The identified risks vary from one to another. The risk association in the metro rail project would affect the project from various ways as per their risk level. The brainstorming and Delphi method are associated with expertise decision-making process which will support the decision tree and utility theory. Among the risk factors including the political, construction, finance, market & revenue, operation, legal and environmental risks; the level of risks can be shown in a table format as below: –
Name of the activities
Types of Risk
Level of the Risks
Key Risk particulars
Design & Construction
Construction and Financial risks
High
Variability in the projected cost of the project by the price of the equipment, wages rate, resources cost and consultation fees to the project experts
Operational and Maintenance activities
Operation risks
Medium
Variability in the efficiency level of the project people and the productivity they produce
Planning and project approvals
Operation risks
Medium
Timely project approvals would support the project positively whereas the delay in the approval of the phase works would affect the project execution drastically
Property settlement and Land acquisition
Construction risks
High
The primary task of the project planning is to settle the property and land acquisition successfully. Delay in the land acquisition and settlement would slow down the projected growth
Stakeholders’ and community welfare
Market & legal risks
Low
The successful project completion would provide the community and stakeholders a better transport service which is also the aim of the Victorian government hence the risk factors are less than others
project design and Architecture
Construction risks
Medium
The project design and architecture is the modular work upon which the entire construction and project execution will depend. Hence the risk will arise if there will be any fault in the design and architecture creation
Pre-project execution operational preparation and settings
Operation risks
Medium
The operation settings should be structured systematically as the project will be carried on for more than 10 years. Hence any fault in the operation structure would lead faulty operational activities which will risk the metro rail project’s growth possibilities
Commercial activities
Legal & financial risks
High
The commercial activities include the project fund generation, sanction of the fund and appropriate planning of the utilization of the fund. The commercial activities also include the understanding of different economic and legal laws which are needed to study and analyze the relationship with the metro rail project and maintain accordingly. Failure of which bring uncertain project risks for the Melbourne metro rail project
Societal relocation and pollution controlling research activities
Environmental risks
Medium
The environment associated with the project site has a direct impact on the future of the project works. As the noise and environmental effect would affect the society directly.
Balance in the economic and political situations
political risks
Medium
The political factors also impact the future growth of the project, the Melbourne rail transport authority should understand the different impacts of the political factors and stay aware of it
- Evaluation and treatment of risks
The project risks of the Melbourne metro rail project are associated with many factors. Most of the factors produce high risks where some also give low and medium risks. The construction risks bear both high as well as medium risk uncertainty. The Pre-constructional arrangement including preparing a well-defined design and architecture for the entire construction of the activities is an essential part of the project. Once the design is ready the arrangement of the equipment needs to commence in the next step. Most of the streets will be blocked when the work will move on from one place to another. The alternative road transport way should be ready before the construction works begin (Goh & Abdul-Rahman, 2013). Such example in the first phase the Franklin and A’Beckett will be closed for 5 years which is regarded as the busiest street in Victoria. Blocking of the streets will affect the normal road transport. Without proper alternatives, no streets should be blocked. The property settlement and acquisition also comes under high-risk category without which no metro rail project could be carried on. All the land settlement and acquisition works should perform successfully as a single failure would bring uncertain risks.
The political and economic conditions should be controlled by the government as without the political as well economic support, this government project couldn’t be completed successfully. The metro rail project is directly associated with the environment and safety factors. The Metro rail authority should take half kilometers surrounding the project site and develop it accordingly that would support the environment without creating any noise or air pollution. All the project activities should follow the legal guidelines of the government as like the other business and corporate organizations which could create the importance of the metro rail project in the list of national developmental activities (Walke, Topkar, Matekar, & Walke, 2011).
The operation is the major part of the project execution upon which the entire result will depend. The Melbourne metro rail authority has decided to recruit 3500 people in temporary and permanent basis to support the operational smoothness of the project execution. The project work activities need highly expertise effort as it is different and advanced than the past railway projects. The Victorian government has concerned with starting the modern railway infrastructure throughout the city from the successful commencement of Melbourne metro rail project. The operational risks will arise if the managerial and operators engaged in the execution wouldn’t provide their best. The more efficiency level the employees could invest the less operational risk will generate (Rezakhan, 2011).
- Risk monitoring & control
The identified risks could be controlled if the risk association could be understood by the people or stakeholders involved in it. Mostly the operational people should be trained efficiently to understand the risk management of the project and should invest their leadership and decision-making qualities in minimizing the project risks. In the workplace, the carelessness for small accidents would create uncontrollable operational risks. Not only the training but also motivational and cooperation among the operational staffs with the Melbourne metro railway authorities could be helpful in minimizing the risk (Taroun, Yang, & Lowe, 2011). The future prospects of the metro project will be beneficial for the society; hence the societal promotional and awareness programs should be conducted by the metro rail authorities. Proper communication should be established with the people whose land will be relocated. The funds would be sanctioned in several stages; hence proper balance should be maintained between the requirement of the fund and the fund actually available at the Melbourne Metro rail authorities. This would minimize the financial risks uncertainties effectively. The environmental and safety aspects should be categorized after commencing a thorough study of the probable situations. The availability of the safety instruments at the work site and focusing to minimize the noise of the metro rail environment could lessen the negative effects of the metro rail project commencement in the long-term (Cagliano, Grimaldi, & Rafele, 2015).
- Conclusion
The Melbourne metro rail project would become the symbol of the advanced infrastructural and constructional railway project hence both the government as well as the society should understand the value of it and support their effort to a maximum. The uncertain risks can’t be controlled in a practical sense rather than being aware of facing them with appropriate preparation (Virine). The project is not only a new proposal but also is the foundational structure for the next generation railway infrastructure in Australia. The successful implementation would provide a base for the future metro rail projects by utilizing the inner core of the regions. In a secondary phase of the infrastructural development the other areas including Seymour, Mernda, Hurstbridge, Clifton Hill, Ballarat, Geelong, Belgrave, and Lillydale Baxter. New metro rail underground projects will be commenced once the successful completion of the current project.
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