Sources of energy in kenya
Abstract
In Kenya, the section 5g of the Energy Act 2006 decrees the Energy Regulatory Commission to prepare indicative energy plans which help in monitoring the energy situation in the country in correlation with the World Energy insight Scenario. In turn, the Commission coordinates the mandated function via the preparation of Bi-annual Least Cost Power Development Plans (LCPDPs) in conjunction with sector efficacies. The plan prepared for the scenario of the energy in the country tends to cover the long term or short terms updates of the alternating years. The current edition of the LCPDP is a rolling plan of 20 years from the period of 2017 to 2037. The master plan provides a focus on the Government Big 4 Agenda whereby the energy is expected to play a vital role in the achievement of the 4 Agendas.
On the other hand, based on the energy situation globally, the World Energy Insight Council tends to shed some light on the global energy futures initiatives and studies. The council, which includes energy leaders from different countries provides its members with a clearer understanding of new insights on the energy transition. Whereas, preparing them to better engage with leadership dialogues which pivot on visions of the new energy future, including the discussions aimed to achieve internationally agreed commitments. For instances, the UNFCC Paris Agreement on climate change, the global Sustainable Development Agenda along with those promoted by energy firms or even new energy start-ups. In a nutshell, the paper outlines the current and future energy sources in Kenya, the institutional aspect of the power sector, and electricity demand. Moreover, the article analyzes the global energy mix and electricity demand.
Introduction
The Government, through the Ministry in charge of Energy, is responsible for energy policy along with energy planning. However, the Energy Act 2006 in section 5g mandates the Energy Regulatory Commission to prepare indicative energy plans as the energy sector is critical for the economic growth development of the country. In turn, the Commission coordinates the mandated function via the preparation of Bi-annual Least Cost Power Development Plans (LCPDPs) in conjunction with sector efficacies. The plan integrates changes in planned generation sequencing primarily from the Feed-In-Tariff Policy approvals besides from new Government approved projects expected in the medium to long term. The article main drive of the energy scenario come at a time when the Government focus is on the ‘big 4’ areas of development which include food security, housing development, Manufacturing, and universal health care. Notably, energy sector anticipates playing a pivotal role in the achievement of big 4 Agendas given that it acts as a core enabler for their realization.
The Plan is categorized into three key areas; Load forecasting – This comprises of an analysis of load projections in both energy and capacity to arrive at a reasonable forecast of expected demand during the study period. It takes into consideration critical parameters that are likely to change over time. The settings including, the macro framework which consist of Economic growth, inflation, world fuel prices, among others, the population growth scenario and technology changes. Therefore, specific consumptions at household and industrial level and the expected connectivity rates Generation Planning – Involving the application of short term and long term plan simulation by utilizing the Lahmeyer LIPs OP and LIPs XP respectively to arrive at an optimal generation sequence. The simulation tools take into consideration plant types by technology, system constraints, as well as relevant costs. Through a comprehensive screening process, an optimal generation mix is developed for the period under review. Transmission Planning – The transmission plan has taken into consideration system requirements, reliability based on an N-1 criterion, and as well as expected expansion to meet the adequacy requirement. Power System Simulation for Engineers (PSSE) has been utilized in system simulations to arrive at the ideal network expansion plan. The main objective of this update is to take into account new assumptions, reflect on emerging technologies as well as market dynamics that may influence future power expansion plan and accommodate new Government policy guidance on renewable energy expansion in the immediate to long term.
As the Kenya rolling of the energy sector is set under 2017 to 2037for the purpose of the forecasting on the energy demand and the current situation of the energy sector, the World Energy Council anticipate having the 24th World Energy Congress in September 2019. The Congress which shall take place in Abu Dhabi shall convene over 6,000 energy leaders across the world. The council aims to refresh its global energy foresight as well as updating the World Energy Scenarios 2016 (WES2016). The focus is on an ‘innovation twist to 2040 along with exploring the energy scenarios to navigate new exponential growth opportunities to accelerate the successful energy transition in an era of epic and disruptive innovation.
The World Energy Scenarios 2016 (WES2016) launched at the 23rd World Energy Congress in Istanbul in 2016; the WES2016 explore three alternatives, rational decarbonization pathways to 2060 and their implications for achieving a 2°C limit. By comparing the methods, narratives, and assumptions associated with a benchmarkable set of global energy futures initiatives and studies, the Council seeks to provide the members with more accurate understanding and new insights on energy transition whereas preparing them to better engage with leadership dialogues which pivot on visions of a new energy future, including those aimed at achieving internationally agreed commitments, for example, UNFCC Paris Agreement, UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, as well as those promoted by national governments, energy firms, and new energy start-ups. From the World Energy Scenario 2016, the paper focuses on the energy mix along with the global energy demands for sustainable development in the countries.
Institutional aspects in the power sector
The reforms in the energy sector have seen a complete reorganization of functions previously concentrated in the Ministry of Energy and KPLC. The changes were driven by the need to place responsibilities of specific institutions that would specialize in the mandates given in such institutions under the Energy Act to enhance efficiency. Accordingly, the reforms were unbundled into generation, transmission, distribution, oversights, and policy functions. The institutional structure in the electricity sub-sector in Kenya encompasses the Ministry of Energy (MOE) which is in charge of making and articulating energy policies to create an enabling environment for efficient operation and growth of the energy sector. It sets the strategic direction for the growth of the industry and provides a long-term vision for all sector players.
Secondly, the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) responsible for the regulation of the energy sector. Functions include tariff setting and oversight, coordination of the development of Indicative Energy Plans, monitoring, and enforcement of sector regulations. Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen) is another institutional structure having the responsibility of electricity generation, with an installed capacity of 1,610MW. It is listed at the Nairobi Stock Exchange with the shareholding being 70% by the Government of Kenya and 30% by private shareholders. The Company accounts for about 69% of the installed capacity from various power generation source, including hydropower, thermal, geothermal, and wind. Rural Electrification Authority (REA) is another institutional structure which was established in 2007 with a mandate of implementing the Rural Electrification Programme. Since the establishment of the Authority, there has been accelerated connectivity of rural customers which have increased from 133,047 in 2007 to 1,269,510 in 2017. As well the Rural Electricity Authority have managed to install a solar power plant in Garissa which is connected to the national grid having to generate 54 MW, thus contributing to the power supply to the consumer.
Kenya Power and Lighting Company (KPLC) is a structure which operates as the off-taker in the power market buying power from all power generators based on negotiated Power Purchase Agreements for onward transmission, distribution, and supply to consumers. It is governed by the State Corporations Act and is responsible for most of the existing transmission and distribution systems in Kenya. The transmission system comprises 220kV, 132kV, and 66kV transmission lines. KPLC is a listed company on the Nairobi Stock Exchange with the ownership structure being 50.1% by the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) and the government of Kenya whereas the private shareholders own 49.9%.
Kenya Electricity Transmission Company (KENTRACO) is power sector institution which was incorporated in December 2008 as a State Corporation 100% owned by the Government of Kenya. The Mandate of the KETRACO is to plan, design, construct, own, operate and maintain new high voltage (132kV and above) electricity transmission infrastructure that will form the backbone of the National Transmission Grid & regional interconnections. It is expected that this will also facilitate the evolution of an open- access- system in the country. Geothermal Development Company (GDC) is a wholly owned Government Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) intended to undertake the surface exploration of geothermal fields, undertake exploratory, appraisal and production drilling and manage proven steam fields as well as enter into steam sales agreements with investors in power. Kenya Nuclear Electricity Board (KNEB) is charged with the responsibility of developing a comprehensive legal and regulatory framework for nuclear energy use in Kenya.
Lastly, Independent Power Producers (IPPs) are the power structured termed as private investors in the power sector involved in generation either on a large scale or for the development of renewable energy under the Feed-in -Tariff Policy. As at June 2017, they accounted for 696MW. The generated power is approximately 29.8% of the country’s installed capacity from thermal, geothermal, hydro, Biogas, and cogeneration. Some of the examples of the private investors include, Iberafrica with installed capacity of 108.2 MW, Tsavo Thermal plant with capacity of 74.0 MW, Thika thermal plant with a capacity of 87.0 MW, Biojule Kenya Limited Biogas plant producing 2.0 MW, Mumias Cogeneration plant with capacity of 26.0 MW, Rabai Thermal plant with total capacity of 90.0 MW. All IPPs tend to contribute an absolute power of 696 MW to the national grid.
Energy Sources in Kenya
The energy sources which are depended for the utilization of the power generation in Kenya include the hydropower, geothermal, wind, biogas, solar, biomass, waste- to- energy and crude oil. Additionally, the country is focused on the nuclear fuel thus interconnecting with other countries for the establishment of a nuclear plant in the future which shall play a vital role by adding up power to the national grid.
Crude oil
Kenya’s electricity sector relies considerably on imported crude oil and petroleum products fuelling nearly 40% of the installed power generating capacity1. With the commissioning of geothermal power plants, this dependency has decreased in recent years. To this day all petroleum products used in Kenya are imported, including crude oil as well as refinery products. Until its operation stop in 2013, imported crude oil was refined in the Kenya Petroleum Refineries Limited (KPRL) and processed into various petroleum products for use in domestic power generation. Crude oil imported into Kenya is sourced from Abu Dhabi (referred to as “Murban crude”) and Saudi Arabia (referred to as “Arabian Medium”) with equal quantity shares of 75% and 25% respectively. The Abu Dhabi crude oil variety is of higher quality as it produces more diesel, gasoline, kerosene, and less heavy fuel oil than the Arabian Medium variety.
Kenya had a total of 46 onshore and offshore exploration blocks across the country and off the coast and a total of 43 exploratory wells which have been drilled in four basins (Lamu, Mandera, Anza, Tertiary Rift) by 20152. A corresponding number of 41 licenses have been awarded to international oil firms (exploration and production companies) to carry out exploratory activities. Figure 1 below provides an overview of ongoing exploration activities in Kenya as from July 2015. Domestic crude oil deposits have been located in Turkana, the northernmost county of Kenya bordering Uganda and South Sudan. Extraction in Turkana is expected to start soon. The crude oil from Turkana is planned to be transported via a pipeline to Lamu for export. The commercial viability of exploitation and export or domestic refining of the crude is still being analyzed
Geothermal energy
Kenya is endowed with geothermal resources, mainly in the Rift Valley, as shown in figure 2. Geothermal energy has comparably low electricity production costs. Currently, geothermal capacity provides nearly 50% of total power generation. The current full geothermal installed capacity amounts to almost 650 MW. The KenGen power plants are equipped with single flash steam technology while the remaining capacity owned and operated by independent power producers (IPP) use binary steam cycle technology. Due to the low short-run marginal costs, geothermal power plants generally run as base load. Kenya geothermal resource potential is estimated at 10,000 MW along the Kenyan Rift Valley. Currently, geothermal power is only being harnessed in the Olkaria, Menegai, and Eburru fields. In the medium and long term new geothermal reservoirs, such as Suswa, Longonot, Akiira, and Baringo Silali are planned to be developed. Other potential geothermal prospects within the Kenya Rift that have not been studied in great depth include Emuruangogolak, Arus, Badlands, Namarunu, Chepchuk, Magadi, and Barrier.
The actual applicable medium- and long-term potential has been derived based on the current development status of the geothermal power plant pipeline. It is expected that an overall capacity of 539 MW of geothermal power could be implemented during the medium-term period since they are already at the advanced stage of construction or planning. It can be expected that geothermal energy will play an essential role in the future Kenyan power system. Good knowledge and expertise in geothermal exploration, drilling, power plant implementation, and operation are already present in the country. However, drilling risks, high upfront costs, and a rather long implementation period have to be taken into account in the planning stage.
Geothermal power provides reliable baseload power at a low operating cost. Single flash technology, which is mainly being utilized in Kenya today, is restricted in providing flexible control due to technical reasons. Binary systems, however, can be operated very flexible. About future geothermal expansion and considering the power system needs (load following, regulation control), it is recommended that the opportunity to use binary technology is explored and deployed.
Hydropower
Kenya has a considerable hydropower potential estimated in the range of 3000- 6000 MW. Currently over 750MW is exploited, mainly in large installations owned by the national power generation utility, KenGen. The existing hydropower plants contribute about 30% of the national annual electricity generation. There are eight power stations with a capacity of more than 10MW each that have reservoirs. At least half of the overall potential originates from smaller rivers that are key for small-hydro resource generated electricity. With the introduction of the feed-in tariff policy in 2008, small-scale candidate sites are likely to come up and serve well for the supply of villages, small businesses or farms. It is estimated that the undeveloped hydroelectric power potential of economic significance is 1,449 MW, out of which 1,249 MW is for projects of 30MW or bigger. Average energy production from these potential projects is estimated to be at least 5,605GWh per annum. This hydropower potential is located in five geographical regions, representing Kenya’s major drainage basins. Lake Victoria basin (329MW), Rift Valley basin (305MW), Athi River basin (60MW) and Tana River basin (790MW).
Wind energy
Of all renewable energy sources, wind power is the most mature in terms of commercial development. The development costs have decreased dramatically in recent years. Potential for growth is enormous, and the world’s capacity is far more extensive than the world’s total energy consumption. Worldwide, full capabilities of about 60,000MW have been installed, with a yearly production of about 100 TWh. There is still little experience in using wind for power generation in Kenya. However, awareness and interest are steadily growing. The most recent investment in wind energy in Kenya is KenGen’s 25.5MW farm in Ngong comprising thirty (30) 850kW turbines. Local production and marketing of small wind generators have started, and few pilot projects are under consideration. However, only very few small and isolated wind generators are in operation so far. The Best wind sites in Kenya are located in Marsabit, Samburu, Laikipia, Meru, Nyeri and Nyandarua and Kajiado counties. Other areas of interest are Lamu, offshore Malindi, Loitokitok at the foot of Kilimanjaro and Narok plateau. On Least cost power development plan 2017-2037 61 average, the country has an area of close to 90,000 square kilometers with very excellent wind speeds of 6m/s and above. Grid-connected wind turbines already have a considerable impact in developed countries and are increasing in some developing countries as well. This is mainly through large-scale installations, either on land (on-shore) or in the sea on the continental shelf (off-shore).
Solar Energy Resources
Kenya has great potential for the use of solar energy throughout the year because of its strategic location near the equator with 4-6 kWh/m2/day levels of insolation. It is estimated that 200,000 photovoltaic solar home systems, most of which are rated between 10We and 20We estimated at the cost of Kshs 1,000/We, are currently in use in Kenya and generate 9GWh of electricity annually, primarily for lighting and powering television sets. However, this is only about 1.2% of households in Kenya. With enhanced state support, it is estimated that the rate of market penetration will improve considerably.
Given that there are four million households in rural Kenya alone, the potential for photovoltaic solar home systems is virtually untapped. It is therefore expected that with the diversification of agricultural electrification strategies, the number of installed solar home systems will grow substantially. This can be harnessed for water heating and electricity generation for households and telecommunications facilities in isolated locations.
Biomass, biogas, and waste-to-energy
Biomass energy usually means renewable energy coming from sources such as wood and wood residues, crops and residues, animal and human wastes. The conversion technology depends on the biomass itself and is influenced by demand-side requirements. The final result of the conversion process is direct heat and electricity or a solid, liquid or gaseous fuel. This flexibility is one of the advantages of biomass compared to other renewable energy sources. There are numerous commercially available technologies for the conversion process and the utilization of the resulting energies for heating or power generation. Cogeneration incorporates the simultaneous utilization for both heating and power electricity generation.
Solid biomass, rich in lignin can be used in an incinerator where the produced Least cost power development plan 2017-2037 66 flue gas provides heat and electricity or in a gasification process to provide syngas for further use. Solid/liquid biomass, which is reduced in lignin, is commonly used in fermenters and with the produced biogas also heat and electricity can be provided for further use. Biogas is a mixture of methane and carbon dioxide with small amounts of other gases and needs an additional cleaning step before it is usable. Biogas is similar to landfill gas, which is produced by the anaerobic decomposition of organic material in landfill sites.
Municipal Solid Wastes (MSW) constitutes a potential source of material and energy as well. Because of its composite components, it is necessary to pretreat this wastes (or collect it separated by source) before it can be used. The objective is to recycle as much as possible and use the remaining material with a high calorific value in an incinerator or gasification process to provide heat, electricity, or syngas. The wet material can be used in a fermentation process to produce biogas. Agricultural and agro-industrial residues and wastes have the potential to generate heat and power. The best example in several countries is power generation from bagasse. It is presently foreseen for power generation for grid supply in two sugar mills in Kenya: Mumias and Kwale. Besides the sugar bagasse, there could be some potential in the tea industry as well, which could co-generate about 1 MW in the 100 factories using their wood plantations for drying.
A study conducted by GTZ in 2010 shows a biogas energy potential mainly for heat production and a rather small potential for power production. However, some biogas power projects have been submitted to the FiT scheme. Biomass can appear as a rather modest potential at present but could increase significantly with the agro-industrial development and mainly through sugar mills revamping and future concentration of other agro-industries. A specific survey of agro-residues in the medium and long term, combined with the load center and planned network could suggest lower investments in the power sector than conventional power supply and transmission.