There is a significant difference between strong inductive arguments and weak inductive arguments. In strong inductive reasoning, it is good to note that the conclusion of the discussion shows a clear reflection of the procedures used to conclude. On the other hand, weak inductive arguments fail to show a clear connection between the outcome as well as the methods used to conclude. To clearly understand the two concepts, this paper is going to intensely discuss two types of public opinion polls, one considered as strong and the other as weak.
Strong poll
Of late, there has been an extensive debate on the legalization of marijuana. When analyzing the strong poll, the critical questions that were asked to the respondents are, whether cannabis should be legalized or not. The survey, which was conducted on April 9 to April 14, saw several people selected for the sample was 1010 adults. Thus, the number was large enough to avoid the occurrence of errors, as the results can comfortably be generalized to the whole population. The sample was taken from diverse populations putting into consideration various factors such as political affiliation, history of usage of marijuana, state of origin, geographical location, age, language spoken (English or Spanish) gender of the respondent as well as perceived impacts of marijuana legalization.
The data was collected on behalf of CBS news through dialing of different phone numbers from both the landline as well as cell phones. This means that the method that was used in the selection of the sample was Random Digital Dial. In the case of the landlines, a list was drafted on all the adults in a household, and calls were given where the respondent, who was an adult, was interviewed. In the case of cell phones, numbers were dialed, and anyone who answered the phone was interviewed, provided they were adults.
In my opinion, in this poll, there existed no opportunity of biasness. This is because, due to the lack of direct contact between the respondent and interviewer, there is no way the interviewer could have made a judgment on the respondent. Also, significant considerations on the characteristics of the respondent were put in places such as gender and age. Also, the sample collected shows a clear depiction of the United States demographic characteristics, as reflected by the Census figures. The target population of this particular public opinion poll, as clearly seen, is all the residents of the United States of America who are adults hence aged 18 years and above, and who, as per the state laws, can use or acquire both medicinal and recreational marijuana.
I would rate this public opinion poll as a 9 out of 10, hence strong. This is because the conduction of the survey did put into consideration the diverse demographics of the United States of America, including factors such as gender, language spoken, geographic location, technological advancement, age of the respondents, among others. Also, the representative sample selected for the poll was large enough to enable the generalization of the results found. It is also good to note that the survey was not conducted in one day, but for five consecutive days, this enabled the interviewer to be able to reach the diverse population as well as to acquire reliable information as it was not rushed. However, there could be a possible occurrence of minimal errors based on factors such as religious beliefs. Therefore, the error in this study can be plus or minus 4%, with it being more prevalent among the subgroup divisions. The error margin encompasses the sampling procedures. However, all in all, this public opinion poll can be termed as a reliable poll as it conforms mostly to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council of Public Polls, and the results are based on legit procedures.
Weak poll
An excellent example of a weak poll that I have analyzed is the exit polls of presidential elections in the United States of America general elections. The opinion poll was surrounded by the question, “Between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, who is your preferred candidate. CNN conducted the public opinion poll sampled 24558 respondents a number, which is large enough to act as a representative population of the whole American community. Thus the number was large enough to avoid hastiness. The sample was taken from different types of individuals putting into consideration several factors such as gender, age, race, level of education, economic status, marital status, party membership, original citizenship, religion, among other factors.
The method used by the opinion poll is non-probability sampling, majorly applying convenience sampling. This is where data is taken from anybody who happens to be around during the time of data collection. For this poll, data was collected from anyone who happened to be around when the media reporter was interviewing the people. Hence, during the time of closing polls, a reporter stands at the exit and interview anyone willing to the candidate that they have chosen. When selecting the time and place of interview, the reporter must put into consideration various factors such as the time in which the people of the locality are expected to vote.
In this type of survey, there is a high probability of biasness to creep into the sample selected. This type of biasness may arise from the reporter’s allegiance to the presidential candidate as well as other characteristics that may seem to be similar to be the person interviewed. For example, If the reporter conducting interviews had Donald Trump as his preferred candidate based on the fact that many African Americans preferred Trump as their president, the reporter may tend to interview all the blacks to be able to acquire the desired results. Also, when conducting the poll, the sample selected may be biased in that, based on the time chosen to conduct the survey, some segments of the population may be ignored. Biasness may also stem from the geographical position that the reporter has decided to do the poll at. If, for example, the reporter surveys a place highly populated with republicans, the results of the survey will most likely lean towards one side. The target population of this study was all the registered voters in the United States of America.
On the rating of the public opinion poll, I will rate it as four hence, relatively weak. The reason why I have not evaluated the survey as very weak is that the sample selected was large enough to represent the opinions of all the registered voters in the United States of America. Also, the public opinion poll has, to a small extent, incorporated the diverse population of America based on various factors. However, from the survey, several weaknesses can be spotted, especially when it comes to the selection of the sample. As highlighted, biasness can arise in terms of various common characteristics between the reporter and the respondent, geographical location where the poll has been taken as well as the time chosen to take the survey. Though the exit polls usually bring about the excitement of the results, there is a higher probability that errors could have occurred.