TASK 1
Problems Solving From Chapters (40 marks)
(b) NASA has just been notified that Anderson is getting married in February and has been granted a highly sought publicity tour in Europe that month. (He intends to take his wife and let the trip double as a honeymoon). How does this change the final schedule?
(c) Certo has complained that he was misrated on his January missions. Both ratings should be 10s, he claims to the chief, who agrees and recomputes the schedule. Do any changes occur over the schedule set in part (b)?
TASK 2
Case on Decision Tree Diagram (25 marks)
Please read the Case entitled “Ruth Jones’ Heart Bypass Operation” and then answer the questions at the end.
Case: Ruth Jones’ Heart Bypass Operation
Ruth Jones, a robust 50-year-old insurance adjuster living in the northern suburbs of Chicago, has been diagnosed by a University of Illinois cardiologist as having a defective heart valve. Although otherwise healthy, Jones’ heart problem could prove fatal if left untreated.
Firm research data are not yet available to predict the likelihood of survival for a woman of Mrs. Jones’ age and condition without surgery. Based on his own experience and recent medical journal articles, the cardiologist tells her that if she selects to avoid surgical treatment of the valve problem, chances of survival would be approximately as follows: only a 50 percent chance of living one year, a 20 percent chance of surviving for two years, a 20 percent rate for five years, and a 10 percent chance of living to age 58. He places her probability of survival beyond age 58 without a heart bypass to be extremely low.
The bypass operation, however, is a serious surgical procedure. Five percent of the patients succumb during the operation or its recovery stage, with an additional 45 percent dying during the first year. Twenty percent survive for 5 years, 13 percent survive for 10 years, and 8, 5, and 4 percent survive, respectively, for 15, 20, and 25 years.
Required
- Identify and organise all the data from the given Case from a decision tree diagram perspective.
- Draw a decision tree diagram and show all the relevant data in appropriate places.
- Compute the expected monetary value for different alternatives.
- Suggest whether Mrs. Jones should select the bypass operation.
- What other factors might be considered in the final decision making?