The American Presidency
A successful election is be based on the effective mobilization of votes across all the states in the US. This paper discusses the specific strategies adopted by a presidential candidate for the November 2020 presidential elections.
Popular Votes v Electoral College
During general elections, popular votes represent direct democracy whereby eligible citizens take to the ballot to choose their preferred candidate as President. In the US, a qualified voter is one who has attained the age of 18 years. The popular vote is a sharp contrast from representative democracy, which typically involves elected leaders making decisions for the electorate (Belenky, 2012). On the other hand, the second form of voting of the President involves the electoral college, which provides the basis for the president’s election
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Through the electors, the electoral college chooses the President in December after the conclusion of the popular vote exercise that takes place in early November. The selection of electors is made after the general election whereby the Governor of each state writes a Certificate of Ascertainment that lists the electors in that particular state. Importantly, the number of electors in each state is based on the number of congressional districts in each state (Belenky 13)). Thus, each elector has one vote regardless of the population of their congressional district or state. According to Belenky, this provides equality in the determination of a president (Belenky 12). Only Maine and Alaska have a winner take it all system whereby the winner of popular votes in these states gets all the state’s electoral votes. With a 538 electors composition, an absolute majority of at least 270 electors is necessary to guarantee victory in a presidential election.
The electoral college is a system that was primarily set up to avoid majoritarian tyranny (Belenky 14). If the American democracy were to be purely based on the majority popular votes, this would create a possibility of less populous states having minimal impacts on the outcome of a presidential election. Thus, as per the nation’s founders, the electoral college is fundamental in ensuring that the presidential candidates appeal to the entire country (Belenky 14). Since each state has four electors, equal weight is attached to the votes from each state within the US. The electoral college ensures each vote counts and makes it harder for electoral rigging to be perpetuated. Essentially, the four electoral votes in each state are a representation of the popular vote outcome in a particular state.
At the end of an electoral process, it is the electoral college that counts as opposed to the popular vote in determining the president-elect. For instance, in 2016, Hillary Clinton’s 65.8 million votes against Trump’s 62.9 million votes were enough to win the popular vote but insufficient to grant her the presidency. In contrast, 333 electoral votes were enough to win the presidency for Donald Trump. The win in the electoral college is an indication that the candidate won more support nationwide across the various states. The vast disparities evidenced through past elections in popular vote against the electoral college votes reflect the fact that it is almost impossible to interpret an election outcome (John, Tesler & Vavreck 2).
Targeted States
The campaign team shall target the states that have identified as ‘swing states.’ Belenky defines swing states as those that can realistically be won by either of the two major parties, usually through a swing in votes (26). In this case, the campaign shall focus on the following areas identified as swing states in the 2016 presidential elections; North Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia (John, Tesler & Vavreck 7). The targeted states shall be exposed to more intense mainstream media advertisements. Additionally, partisan ads shall also be mainly directed towards the ‘swing states. Moreover, the campaign strategy shall involve increased campaign visits to the targeted states to better connect with the electorate. Primarily, the campaign shall be planned to enable the nominee to make at least double visits to the swing states as compared to the safe states.
Dynamics of the American Voting System
According to Belenky, socio-economic factors such as race, ethnicity, gender, and wealth gap have been established to have a significant bearing on the nature of the presidential elections (46). In the 2016 presidential election, the race was determined to be the single most potent factor among white Americans (John, Tesler & Vavreck 8). As part of the strategy to win the November elections, matters about race would still have a crucial impact on the trajectory of the election outcome. This is particularly enhanced through the recent happenings involving the death of African-Americans, particularly the death of George Floyd. After Floyd’s death, the public has taken to the streets under the Black Lives Matter movement to call for institutional reforms within the American justice system. Thus, the campaign team expects that the call for racial equality and equity will form a vital part of the electoral expectations regarding the next administration during the November elections. In this case, the campaign team shall be set up of individuals who share the party’s ideologies regarding the liberal approach on matter race and ethnicity. This should involve a team that is ready to clearly articulate the party’s position that supports the full integration of the various races and ethnicities. The goal is to lead an integrated campaign that appreciates and embraces the diversity of the masses.
A significant drop in the voter turnout of a racial group could affect the popular vote attained during the presidential election. For instance, in 2016, Hillary Clinton had banked on the African-American Democrat voters (John, Tesler & Vavreck 25). This group had been quite substantial when voting for the outgoing President Barack Obama in the previous two elections in 2008 and 2012. However, the low turnout less turnout among the African-American significantly hurt Clinton’s chances of victory during the 2016 presidential elections. The Democrats made a wrongful assumption that Obama’s voting block would come out strongly to support Clinton (John, Tesler & Vavreck 26). However, some whites exhibited reservations regarding African-Americans and the immigration policies favored by Clinton’s campaign team. Such factors led to anxieties that polarized the campaign teams on racial and ethnic lines.
Gender may play a factor during the presidential election based on public perceptions concerning a person’s abilities. Since the birth of a country after the American Revolution, that nation is yet to get a female president. The Hillary Clinton Candidature provided the chance for the country to have the first women present. The female voter turnout was unusually low compared to the initial projections (John, Tesler & Vavreck 4). However, Trump benefitted from a better male voter turnout, especially men with “sexist attitudes” (John, Tesler & Vavreck 31). Consequently, John, Tesler, and Vavreck argue that Clinton’s candidacy failed to inspire huge turnout among the women partly due to weaker gender solidarity among women (32).
Partisanship remains one of the fundamental factors that influence the voting patterns among American voters. Individuals are more likely to support the party’s presidential nominee as they may likely go against it (Belenky 33). Hence, Donald Trump enjoyed a massive part of the Republican voters primarily because he was the party’s presidential nominee. During the 2012 elections, at least 92% of the Democrats voted for President Barack Obama as their preferred candidate, while in 2016, about 89% of Democrats voted for Hillary Clinton. As much as the candidates in 2012 were quite different from the candidates in 2016, both elections were evidenced by huge inclinations and bias towards party partisanship.
Party loyalty and partisanship will be a crucial part of the 2020’s presidential elections. This will help our campaign team understand the party population that is likely to vote. Party loyalty provides critical indicators of the states that are more affiliated to the party. This helps in informing the strategy on how to seek votes from populations that are non-partisan actively. Therefore, more resources can be channeled towards achievable targets. However, party partisanship may be affected by voter loyalty to a particular candidate during the party primaries (John, Tesler & Vavreck 5). In this case, individuals whose candidate fails to clinch the party ticket for the presidential elections could decide to remain inactive during the remainder of the election campaigns and voting time.
On the other hand, failure during the primaries may push some supporters to support candidates from the other contesting parties due to differences in ideologies with the winning candidate in their own party. This was the case in 2016, whereby at least 12% of Bernie Sanders’ supporters chose to support Donald Trump instead of sticking with the Democratic party presidential nominee (John, Tesler & Vavreck 5). Consequently, party primaries play a crucial role in shaping the nature of party partisanship during presidential elections. Extremely divisive primaries could impact the willingness of non-supporters to support the party’s choice. In this case, as the campaign manager, I would strive to ensure that the primaries are devoid of unnecessary divisions that potentially split the party supporters. As part of the strategy to win the November elections, I will ensure that the party candidate moves quickly to forge a working relationship with the opponents during the party primaries. This would help to ensure to have a sense of unity among the leaders as well as the electorates.
John, Tesler & Vavreck argue that party partisanship has the potential of blinding voters’ perceived prejudices (7). For instance, the whites who voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 exhibited prejudices against African-Americans, which would b unexpected considering that Obama’s race and ethnicity. Almost half of the racial conservative whites who voted for Obama did not think “that the blacks got less than what they deserved” (John, Tesler & Vavreck 11). Such a stance was a manifestation of long-held prejudices against African-Americans, whereby they are considered lazy. Thus, the racial anxieties pushed the conservative white Democrats to lean towards Trump’s camp as the campaigns progressed. Trump’s racial rhetoric in 2016 had more significant ramifications regarding racial attitudes than views expressed by voters in the 2008 or 2012 presidential election. Thus, the conservative whites were unwilling to vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016, primarily due to the attitudes held against black Americans who were considered a central part of her campaign.
Among the Democrats, the Black voters’ turnout was affected by some of the electorates perceived to be Hillary Clinton’s previous racial utterances. For Barack Obama, the extensive participation of African-Americans has been argued as an illustration of the Blacks’ in-group identity. However, Clinton was unable to maintain high voter turnout among the African-Americans partly due to her previous racial rhetoric (John, Tesler & Vavreck 26). Also, strong attacks from Donald Trump effectively capitalized on Clinton’s controversial racial history, which affected her appeal against the Black voters. In this case, I will strive to ensure that the white conservatives are fully engaged on the adverse effects of racial prejudice against minorities such as the African-Americans.
Advertising
Concerning advertising, the campaign team will adopt a strategy that involves intense media advertising closer to Election Day. A massive chunk of the advertising shall be focused on televised advertising. However, social media advertising shall also form a vital part of the media advertising strategy. According to John, Tesler, and Vavreck, Hillary Clinton was able to gain more voters in the 2016 presidential elections due to her considerable advantage in airwaves (40). However, Trump won an edge over his competitor due to sustained advertising in digital platforms such as Facebook. Thus, it will be crucial to conduct intense advertising in mainstream media and digital media to effectively reach out to voters across the various generations.
Role of Economics
Economic statuses have mostly not been too critical in determining voters’ behavior in the past two presidential elections (John, Tesler & Vavreck 21). However, as much as economic anxiety has been downplayed, the data does not mean that it is a non-existent issue. This has emerged to be racialized economics, which refers to a situation where economic concerns influence voting patterns. Historically, financial challenges have been most prevalent among “racial and ethnic minorities such as African-Americans and Mexican immigrants” (John, Tesler & Vavreck 21). Thus, voters are more likely to vote for candidates who address their specific socio-economic challenges. In this regard, it will be essential for my campaign team to develop policies aimed at tackling the wealth gap among American households.
Racialized economics was evidenced through the utterances made by Donald Trump during the 2016 presidential campaigns. According to John, Tesler, and Vavreck, Trump made comments suggesting that the previous regime had adopted policies that favored immigrants more than American veterans (21). Such remarks swayed white conservatives against Hillary Clinton because they enhanced racial dissent against non-white Americans because they were perceived as the cause of economic hardships. To address racial economics, I will ensure that the campaign team desists from racial incitement against particular races on matters concerning economic welfare. The campaign team will be focused on ensuring that individuals from different socio-economic statuses feel fully involved and valued.
Conclusion
The November elections campaigns shall require considering the various factors that determine voter identity with the presidential nominee. The campaign shall primarily be run on a platform of unity that aims to bring together Americans with divergent identities ranging from race, ethnicity, and religion. To avoid a highly polarized election campaign, the team shall minimize the utterance of racial rhetoric. This is essential in dealing with the identity crisis by allowing the electorate their preferred candidates based on their ideologies.
Reference
Belenky, Alexander S. Understanding the fundamentals of the US presidential election system.
Springer Science & Business Media, 2012.
Sides, John, Michael Tesler, and Lynn Vavreck. Identity crisis: The 2016 presidential campaign
and the battle for the meaning of America. Princeton University Press, 2019.