The SEARCH Formula
The ‘SEARCH Formula’ together with the criteria for adequacy are used to test the scientific base of hypothetical claims. The initials SEARCH denote the following information; ‘S’ stands for, ‘state the claim’; ‘E’, ‘examine the proof for the claim’; A, H and C, ‘consider an alternative hypothesis’, and R, ‘rate each hypothesis i.e. the null and alternative hypotheses (H0, and H1 respectively) based on the criteria of adequacy. This paper will examine the hypothesis that, “palm reading is an accurate predictor of one’s future”.
To begin with ascertaining the clarity of the claim, as can be noted, the hypothesis is clear, it specifies that, “palm reading is an accurate predictor of one’s future”. This clarity allows us to proceed to test the claim as either, true, or false. A quick review of available literature on palm reading reveals numerous data from scientific studies conducted in the field of ‘palm reading’ that support the science behind palm-reading. These studies include data on the ratio of the length of the index-finder to ring-finger. For instance, several studies indicate that the ratio of the length of the index-finder to ring-finger can be correlated with different individual traits based on their differences in prenatal exposure to testosterone i.e.: compared to a man with a shorter index finger, a man with a longer index finger is for example established to have a longer, and more attractive face, a longer penis, and to possess greater athletic skills (Choi et al., 2011; Ferdenzi et al., 2011; Giffin et al., 2011; Klimek et al; 2014). In the same measure, men with longer index fingers, are considered to be prone to acquiring diseases like early heart disease, and schizophrenia, but, are less likely to be autistic or to suffer from Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Other scientific studies provide additional data to support palm reading, i.e. that finger digit ratios may reveal information about individual predispositions for self-control. A research conducted to measure the capacity of pre-school children to delay gratification, found that the children with longer index fingers were more likely to resist the temptations for instant gratification Da Silva et al., 2014). These data appear to provide scientific support to palm reading, however, before accepting this claim, we will examine an alternative hypothesis.
Opposing claims to the authenticity of palm reading however, maintain that, “palm reading is not an accurate predictor of one’s future”, could this be true? Skeptics classify palm-reading rather, as a pseudo-science, i.e. a body of knowledge that is regarded as scientific but, whose practices does not comply with the scientific method. Several scientists argue that, the mere fact that the practice can be traced back through civilizations, and that it has withstood ‘the test of time’, is not a proof of and in itself. Fundamentally, a broader spectrum of scientists, including clinical psychologists, professors, and researchers, question and discredit the credentialing and certification of palm-readers, as ‘scientists’ when palm-reading fails to comply with the scientific process. Palm-reading, according to experts in mental health, relies, on the psycho-social and emotional manipulation of individuals to predict the future, rather than on, established psychotherapy processes. Explanations to the ability of palm-reading to ‘predict the future’ lie therein in the fore-knowledge of associative human behaviors, and the ability of palm-readers to intuitively align their proclamations based on prior subjective data. Besides, experts in the field of psychology explain that palm-reading is based on the human tendency to, first of all, want to know what will happen in the future, and, to consequently ‘consciously and/or unconsciously, through their actions fulfill the prophecies made on their lives.
Based on the criteria of adequacy, the alternative hypothesis to the claim of the ability of palm reading to predict the future, offers the best explanation on the intent, and process of palm-reading, which is identified to lean more towards tentative expressions and unvalidated assertions of future events. Essentially, there is inadequate evidence to supports the accuracy of palm reading to predict the future, available data indicates that it palm-reading relies on biological data and observation to provides tentative information concerning the future that may, or may not occur. In this case, we can reject the hypothesis that, “palm reading is an accurate predictor of one’s future”, and reframe it to the assertion that, “palm reading is not an accurate predictor of one’s future”.